A strategy intended to beat the bookmakers at predicting the outcome of sports games requires a more accurate model than the model’s bookmakers employ

Instead of trying to create such a model, we decided to use the bookmakers’ own probability estimates of the outcomes to find mispricing opportunities

More specifically, we identify opportunities where odds offered are above their estimated fair value

Sometimes bookmakers offer odds above fair value either to compete to attract clients or to maintain a balanced book to avoid getting overly exposed to risk

This means that bookmakers regularly offer odds with a lower implied probability than the actual probability of the result. This is the key factor that we exploit in our strategy